What CIS really needs from Russia?

Russia's influence in the CIS has been deteriorating over the past months, and some observers are already seeing a possibility of an orange or velvet revolution in Moldova and Georgia. Opposition in Georgia failed to topple the Saakashvili government and still rejects the offer to negotiate. But what does it mean for Russia?

It is clear that the opposition to Saakashvili that will come to power will be much more pro-western than Saakashvili itself, and this does not align with the Russia's interests. Georgia will make every effort to join NATO in any case either under the current rule or its successor. This makes Russia lose its stand in the CIS region.

Another country that promised to be friends with Russia forever, has been consistently looking to the West. It is clear that Russia-Belorussian 'friendship' was based solely on the economic subsidies and help from Russia. Belorussia was receiving $1.5 bln. worth of gas subsidies a year, and was promised a economic bailout if it were to declare sovereignty of Abkhasia and South Ossetia. But it didn't, and it didn't get the money from Russia. The West can provide more than just financing the Belorussian elite and authoritarian rule of Lukashenko. In fact, by providing more benefits to his people Lukashenko will be able to regain his rule and power.

"In general, Lukashenko will gradually move to pursue a policy that will be more independent from Russia, and this is natural. He is a strong leader and does not want to be dependent on anyone" - said foreign policy analysis Oreshkin on Ekho Moskvy Radio. Furthermore, the IMF delegation just arrived in Minsk, and Belorussia will likely to get a line of credit. This forces Lukashenko to turn to the West.

In Moldova, Voronin has shown that he is not in favor of tough control and tries to improve his image in the West. As as he succeeds there will be little control left for Russia. Furthermore, Russia is more and more likely to lose its control in Chechnya as economic conditions deteriorate and the battle for power now came to Moscow. This is the first sign that the situation in Chechnya is out of Russia's control.

To sum up, Russia's influence in the CIS has become overly dependent on money that Russia was able to provide at no or little cost. As situation in Russia continues to deteriorate, and Russia has lost its gas price leverage in CIS it will keep losing its influence.