Russia’s policy in the North Caucasus. What Russians should learn from Obama’s speech?

Situation in Russia’s North Caucasus is becoming alarmingly unstable. While the Kremlin was able to stabilize Chechnya, mainly by flooding the republic with federal money and giving Chechen authorities all the freedom they want, Dagestan is becoming the next hotbed for insurgence and failure of the Kremlin’s policy in the region.

High unemployment, reaching 80% in Dagestan, corruption, arbitration of authorities, high crime rate and absence of rule of law largely contribute to formation of insurgence as a form of protest against the current regime. These factors have reached such a magnitude that local authorities and criminal clans within these republics have started to collide to gain control. The opposition is suppressed with a significant help of a 1999 Law ‘On Wahhabism and Religious Extremism’, that equips local authorities with an effective way to get rid of the opposing forces by trying them as religious extremists and wahhabi. Chechen authorities have become bold enough to reach to their opponents in Moscow and abroad. “Power in exchange for stability” pact between North Caucasus and Moscow has failed.

The U.S. deals with a similar problem in regard to Muslims and has been fighting insurgence in Afghanistan and Iraq. In the aftermath of nine eleven and Bush policies toward the Muslim world, the relationship between Muslims and the West has been undermined, as it has let a great deal of people in the West to view Islam as inevitably hostile. In order to fix this, Obama administration adopted a new, peaceful policy toward Muslims. In his Cairo speech, Obama called for partnership with Islam and a search for new grounds of interaction.

Russians also view Islam as hostile and dangerous. Muslims face extraordinary difficulties with employment when escaping from North Caucasus to other Russian regions. Hate crimes are on the rise among Muslims and these attitudes have long been supported by Russian authorities. Ineffective Kremlin policy in North Caucasus only adds fuel to the fire, leaving large populations of North Caucasus without basic living norms and creating grounds for opposition and insurgence.

Russian government, at its top, needs to adopt a new policy toward its Muslim population, similar to those of Obama administration. North Caucasus republics should receive funding for social infrastructure, and small business development programs should be launched. Tolerance toward Islam should be promoted among Russians. This will help prevent escalation of violence in North Caucasus. About 20% of Russian population is Muslim, and it is increasing quickly. There is even an idea spread by official muftis that Russia is a Christian country temporarily. Putin’s tactic of force and reliance on administrative resource is not going to work anymore.

Medevedev has announced his plans to meet at a big meeting with Muslim leaders. It is fascinating that the meeting of this scope will be held for the first time in the history of modern Russia. This shows that Medvedev once again asserts himself as someone who wants to depart from Putin’s authoritarian methods and start a diplomatic dialogue with Muslims. It seems that Medvedev understands that only well-defined policy of Russian leaders toward Islam may lead to a stable situation in North Caucasus. The only factor that may affect this equation is how much political power Medvedev will gain in the near future.